Swiss political scientist Dr. Louis Perron is questioning the reliability of recent polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. Perron, who has a deep understanding of electoral dynamics, suggests that voters might be misrepresenting their intentions due to social pressures and media influence.
“There is currently quite a media hype about Kamala in the mainstream media, so some voters might not want to admit that they won’t vote for her,” Perron said in a recent interview. He believes this dynamic could explain Harris’ sudden rise in the polls, with respondents possibly providing answers that align with what they perceive as socially acceptable.
Perron draws parallels to the “shy voter” phenomenon, where people are reluctant to disclose their true preferences, particularly when conservative candidates are involved. This effect has been observed in both the U.S. and the U.K., where polls have often underestimated support for right-leaning candidates due to respondents’ hesitation to voice their real opinions.
Perron also notes that national polling tends to favor Democrats because heavily Democratic states like California and New York contribute large vote margins that skew the overall numbers. These factors, combined with potential voter dishonesty, suggest that Harris’ polling advantage might be less secure than it seems.
The political scientist concluded that while Harris’ lead in recent polls is notable, it’s important to be cautious, as voter behavior can be unpredictable. According to Perron, the real outcome will only be clear when voters head to the polls in November.
