Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has secured his position on the Georgia and Arizona ballots this week, giving him a chance to run for president in three states now. He earned a place on Utah’s presidential ballot at the end of last year.
While Kennedy was originally planning on running against President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, he dropped out in October 2023, deciding instead to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent.
The American Values 24 super PAC has been financing Kennedy’s efforts to run for president. Now that Kennedy has secured a chance in Utah, Georgia and Arizona, the American Values 24 co-founder Tony Lyons writes that “The remaining states [on our list of states] are Michigan, South Carolina, Maryland, California, West Virginia, Indiana, Texas, Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts.”
Whether Kennedy will win any of those states is up for debate. In Arizona and Georgia, Kennedy polls at 26% and 24%, respectively. He does have an impressive amount of support for an independent candidate, especially relative to how much his campaign has spent.
They can't ignore us anymore. We're gaining momentum and building a movement to heal America. 🇺🇸 https://t.co/hpwz3ZKIhD
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) February 28, 2024
The more likely outcome of Kennedy’s presidential bid is a change of odds between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the likely Republican and Democratic nominees. In a simple Trump vs. Biden poll, Trump leads 46% to 44%. When Kennedy is listed, however, Trump leads by a far greater margin of 39% to 34%, with Kennedy receiving 17%.
Biden is wildly unpopular as a president, but a large group of voters would never vote for Trump, leaving Kennedy as an appealing option, especially in swing states.
This could have dramatic effects in the key states Kennedy is trying to gain access to the ballot in. By diverting some of the “Never Trumpers” away from Biden, Kennedy may cause the president to fall even further behind.
The DNC is, of course, not very happy about this. They’re pretty frustrated that Kennedy is using a super PAC to circumnavigate the prohibitively high costs and difficulties of running as an independent (A key way that the parties can use to keep control over the political landscape) and have filed an FEC complaint in response.
For the moderate Americans, Kennedy’s bid for the presidency is proof that candidates independent of the political parties may have a fighting chance in the future. For Republicans, Kennedy’s campaign has the potential to divide the opposition. Whether he’ll make waves in the political world or fall to the Democrats’ FEC complaint is yet to be seen.
