Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads Chuck Schumer by 19 points in a hypothetical 2028 New York Senate primary, exposing deep fractures within the Democratic Party.
At a Glance
- AOC leads Schumer 55% to 36% among NYC Democratic primary voters
- Jewish Democrats back AOC 45% to 33% despite her harsh criticism of Israel
- Schumer has lowest favorability (+26) among major Democratic leaders
- Poll sampled mostly NYC voters, favoring AOC’s progressive base
- Reflects growing tension between establishment Democrats and the party’s left flank
AOC Surges, Schumer Stumbles
A new Honan Strategy Group poll reveals a stunning hypothetical matchup in New York’s 2028 Democratic Senate primary: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds a commanding 19-point lead over Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Among 767 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed in New York City, AOC garners 55% support, while Schumer lags at 36%.
The results send a clear message: New York Democrats are signaling openness—if not preference—for the progressive firebrand over the longtime party insider. One of the most striking details is AOC’s lead among Jewish Democrats, a demographic traditionally aligned with Schumer. Despite controversy over her stance on Israel, she leads that bloc by 12 points.
Watch a report: AOC vs. Schumer Poll Shocks Democrats.
The Party’s Civil War Intensifies
The poll is the latest sign of the ideological battle roiling the Democratic Party. Once considered a fringe leftist, AOC now commands broad support in the city that launched Schumer’s four-decade career. Her progressive platform, unapologetic activism, and vocal criticism of Democratic leadership have turned her into a formidable force.
Meanwhile, Schumer finds himself increasingly out of step with the base. His calls for moderation and support for bipartisan legislation are perceived as weakness by some on the left. His favorability among Democrats now sits at +26—dwarfed by Kamala Harris (+63) and Bernie Sanders (+69). It’s a precarious position for a sitting Majority Leader facing a party shifting steadily leftward.
A 2028 Showdown? Not So Fast
Though headlines suggest a dramatic upset, experts urge caution. The poll was limited to New York City voters, where AOC’s support is strongest. A statewide sample could paint a different picture, especially in more moderate or rural regions. Additionally, AOC has not declared any intent to challenge Schumer.
Still, insiders acknowledge the political implications. “This is a massive wake-up call for Schumer,” said strategist Maury Litwack. “It signals how far the progressive movement has come.”
Schumer, asked about the poll, deflected: “That’s a long time away. I’m focused on bringing Trump’s numbers down… that’s my focus right now.”
A Party on the Edge
This hypothetical race reflects more than personal rivalry—it encapsulates the broader struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party. As progressives push for radical reform, establishment leaders face mounting pressure to either adapt or step aside. Whether or not AOC challenges Schumer, the polling shows the base is hungry for change—and not afraid to take on its own.
For the Democratic establishment, the message is simple: ignore the left at your peril.
