While the world awaits the white smoke from the Sistine Chapel, millions of dollars are riding on who will succeed Pope Francis as gambling sites make a holy killing on papal succession bets.
At a Glance
- Online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have collected a combined $17 million in wagers on the papal succession
- Vatican Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin leads betting odds at 15-8, followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle at 5-2
- A conclave of 133 cardinals is now voting in complete secrecy at the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel
- Betting experts question the predictive accuracy of papal betting markets compared to political elections
- The voting process began at 4:30 p.m. Rome time, with black or white smoke signaling the outcome
Gambling on God’s Representative: The Holy Money Game
Leave it to our modern world to turn one of Catholicism’s most sacred traditions into a Vegas-style betting spectacle. Following Pope Francis’s death on April 21, millions of dollars in wagers have flooded online betting platforms as gamblers worldwide place their bets on who the Holy Spirit – or perhaps their own research – suggests will be the next Supreme Pontiff. While Catholics engage in solemn prayer, betting markets are enjoying a divine windfall as the faithful and the faithless alike put their money where their spiritual mouths are.
Vatican conclave: Who are the top contenders to be the next pope?
The betting fervor isn’t limited to simply picking the next pope. Gamblers are placing wagers on everything from the papal name the new pontiff will choose to his nationality and even how many voting rounds it will take before white smoke signals a decision. It’s almost as if Las Vegas set up shop at the Vatican gates – and why not? Nothing says reverence for sacred tradition quite like dropping a few grand on whether the next Vicar of Christ will go with “John Paul III” or “Benedict XVII.”
The Betting Favorites: From Italy to Asia to Africa
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, has emerged as the betting frontrunner with 15-8 odds. Parolin represents the ultimate Vatican insider – an Italian diplomat seen as the compromise candidate between the Church’s progressive and conservative wings. In the current climate of the Church, with its deep divisions, Parolin fits the political bill as someone who might prevent a Catholic civil war. He’s essentially what oddsmakers call “the Italian Bergoglio” – a safe bet for a Church that might not be ready for more dramatic change.
“It’s not a trivially small market, but it’s quite small by comparison,” says Harry Crane, a statistics professor, referring to the papal betting market compared to political elections.
The second favorite among bettors is Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines, coming in with 5-2 odds. Dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his progressive views and commitment to social justice, Tagle would represent a dramatic first – the first modern-era pontiff from Asia. The third major contender, Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson, sits at 11-2 odds and would similarly make history as the first sub-Saharan African pope, potentially expanding the Church’s influence in regions where Catholicism is actually growing rather than declining.
Betting on Divine Inspiration: A Fool’s Game?
Experts warn that betting odds on the papal conclave are misleading, as the process is shrouded in secrecy with cardinals sworn to silence. Unlike political elections that rely on public data, the papal selection remains opaque, making betting more of a gamble than an informed choice.
“Current betting odds, favoring cardinals like Parolin and Tagle, probably reflect general perceptions, media attention and public profile rather than special insider knowledge or highly accurate predictive insight,” says Leighton Vaughan Williams, a betting market expert.
The betting market for papal succession is small, with only several million dollars wagered compared to billions on U.S. presidential elections. Professional gamblers typically avoid it, leaving it to recreational bettors and Catholics believing they have unique insights. The historical accuracy of these markets is questionable; for instance, Pope Francis was largely overlooked by bettors when elected in 2013, illustrating that betting on divine guidance is as reliable as government inflation statistics.
The Second Amendment of Papal Elections: Smoke Signals
As the 133 cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel under Michelangelo’s masterpiece, they’re engaging in a tradition that makes our electoral college look positively modern. Votes are cast on paper ballots, burned after each round. Black smoke means no decision; white smoke announces a new pope has been chosen. In an age of instant digital communication and election night graphics that could power a spaceship, the Catholic Church still relies on smoke signals – possibly the most secure voting system left in the Western world.
Conclave: Cardinals enter seclusion to elect new pope
Whether the next pope ends up being Parolin, Tagle, Turkson, or a surprise dark horse candidate, one thing is certain – God may work in mysterious ways, but gambling markets are even more inscrutable. As the world waits for white smoke to emerge from the Sistine Chapel, millions of dollars hang in the balance – proving that faith may move mountains, at least when it comes to bettor’s cash.
